A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
